Out of the aisles and back in the trenches and job sites … here’s some take-aways and forecasts for builders as they return to the real world from the Magic Kingdom.

The big show in Orlando this week proves this much. Builders and their partners in the home building products, materials, and services world know well that these are uncertain times starting out of the gate in 2017. Nevertheless, they also know that sitting back and waiting for outside conditions to play out and get clearer is no way to deal with the limbo of uncertainty.

Going for a good year–damn the labor, lots, lending, regulation, and political conditions–with gusto is the only way they know, and if it’s not that good, the moment to deal with that head-on is now.

For the as many as 80,000 builders and remodelers and their partners as well as 1,500 exhibitors all working the floor, the meeting rooms, and the networking receptions at the 2017 National Association of Home Builders International Builders’ Show, it’s now time to head back home and jump into the weeds of strong execution. February 5, after all, is Super Bowl LI day, so the countdown to Spring Selling 2017 is nearing its home stretch.

The focus, the well of curiosity, the steady stream of enthusiasm, and the thread of openness and generosity that reached every nook and cranny of three mammoth show halls sprawled across 569,000 square feet of exhibit space, and many, many session rooms, not to mention coffee shops, bars, restaurants, and accidental social spaces was energizing.

For the Hanley Wood edit content team, the days here in Orlando reaffirm our love affair with the community of artisans, craftspeople, business people, engineers, analysts, technicians, creatives, project managers, procurement specialists, and the entire ecosystem of “builders”–on the job-sites and off them–who make homes, and make communities of good homes.

It’s exhilarating, whether the focus is on thermal bridging, or the water barrier, or jobsite safety, or automated room-air comfort, or consumer trends or preferences, or Revit modeling, or site optimization, or integrated vignettes, or plug-and-play installation, or modularization, or collaborative tools, or ease of use, or speed of application, or transitional, or modern, or traditional design, or a memory point, or a behind-the-wall moisture barrier, or an indoor-outdoor living retractable glass wall … what, and how builders build is in a state of rapid transformation.

That’s true, no matter what anybody says about home building being averse to innovation. If there were 80,000 attendees at this year’s show, 80,000 people, down to the person, is seeing changes happening, and more changes coming in the way they ply their trade, make their money, carry out their purpose in our society and our economy.

The 80,000 people who came here to Orlando, and the ones still back on the jobs sites, in the offices, etc., are voting with their feet to be part of that dynamic change, pushing it into houses and communities, square foot by square foot, responding to that singular motivational force: how do people want to live?

And the good news is, according to our own Metrostudy chief economist Mark Boud, between now and 2020, builders can expect continued growth (faster through 2018, and slowing down through 2020). Here’s a slide from Mark’s most recent projections, presented at the 2017 Metrostudy Outlook Breakfast during this week’s show, showing three scenarios for housing starts volume over the next four years.

Here, we see Mark’s forecast on undervaluation (relative affordability) vs. overvaluation (lack of affordability) in the next few years. Importantly, Mark sees a shift in 2017, an inflection pivot from home properties that are undervalued on average to where they’re overvalued, thanks to dirt-cheap mortgage rates coupled with restricted for-sale supply, and the price and cost pressures of land use regulation, labor inputs, and materials inflation.

Here’s Mark’s commentary on some of the key drivers over the next stretch in the housing market.

• Job growth may increase in 2017/18 from 2016 levels
• Household income growth will accelerate through Year 2019
• Housing shortages will become more intense. Look for an accelerated and shorter, sharper real estate cycle, with a peak in the 2018/19 time frame
• An extended period of low mortgage rates has allowed home prices (and land values) to rise higher and more rapidly than they should have. Rising mortgage rates may contribute to severe over valuation in many markets, despite only modest price appreciation during the next few years
• A higher national Debt-to-GDP ratio will lead to higher interest payments which will eventually dilute US currency and slow the US economy
• Careful research and accurate data analysis have never been more important than in the current cycle!

You can connect directly to Mark Boud’s entire presentation and forecast here.

Finally, I want to say thank you to a team of people who’ve joined me this week in Orlando, fanning out through the exhibit halls, catching as many educational sessions as is humanly possible, and reporting what they’ve been hearing and seeing to you on a real-time, daily basis. From Journal of Light Construction editorial director Clayton DeKorne, to ProSales and Remodeling editor in chief Craig Webb, to our BUILDER team of Jennifer Goodman, Kayla Devon, and Lauren Shanesy, and Remodeling/ProSales assistant editor Marisa Mendez, all backed up by Brian Croce and Mary Salmonsen in the D.C. offices of Hanley Wood, the team made a huge effort this week and their work shows.

Here’s just a sampling:

IBS 2017: BEST DESIGN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 55+ BUYER

INDUSTRY EXPERTS EXPECT 55+ MARKET TO CONTINUE RISE

IBS 2017: DAY 1 PRODUCT FINDS

IBS 2017: DAY 2 PRODUCT FINDS

NKBA SURVEY: WHAT DESIGN CHOICES ARE TRENDING IN KITCHEN AND BATHS

ROOFING MANUFACTURER LOWERS PRICES BY UP TO 16%

ENERGIZE YOUR BUYERS WITH DESIGN HOT SPOTS

SHOW REPORT: A FIRST LOOK AT NEW PRODUCTS

Awesome team effort here, and I hope you’ll stay in touch with us on any new development or trend you see coming down the pike in 2017. Our entire Hanley Wood and Metrostudy team wishes all success for the business and building community in the months ahead.