Tyler Cowen may be onto something here with his take on American complacency. Cowen is an economist at George Mason University and an author. His latest title is “The Complacent Class.”

And this, in our minds, relates to what 63% of our Builder 100 survey respondents among home building’s top 200 companies tell us is their biggest worry right now. Labor.

Here’s important insight

on home building labor’s “gorilla in the room” issue: Why there are fewer and fewer young people entering construction trades.As harsh a light as this analysis throws on one of residential development and construction’s biggest pain points, it’s critical in a couple of ways for home building’s business leaders to recognize what they’re up against at this level of detail. They’re certainly smacking into the issue in a real way every day in the field on the job sites, as this story attests.

National Association of Home Builders assistant VP for survey research Rose Quint dives into results of a national, demographically representative poll of 18 to 25 year olds on whether they’re apt to choose a construction trade as their occupation. Quint opens her analysis with this sobering data point:

The majority of young adults (74%) say they know the field in which they want to have a career. Of these, only 3% are interested in the construction trades.

Quint offers top line findings on the whys and wherefores of what attracts the few who are choosing to learn construction skills as they enter their careers, and what repels so many who wouldn’t pick the field “no matter what the pay.” Here’s a nugget from the research:

The 63% of undecided young adults who indicated there was no or little chance they would consider a career in the trades no matter the pay were prodded about the reasons for their resoluteness. The two most common reasons are wanting a less physically-demanding job (48%) and the belief that construction work is difficult (32%). They were then asked if there was any compensation level that might entice them to reconsider a career in the trades. For slightly more than 20%, that number is either $75,000 or $100,000, but for the plurality (43%), there is no amount of money that could make them give the trades a second thought.
So, for more than two of every five 18 to 25-year olds, you couldn’t pay them enough to change their minds about the kind of careers they could have if they started into the construction trades.

Quint notes that, in a number of ways, perception is part of the problem. Young adults today don’t see a great, good-paying career path in the skilled trades.

In order to more concretely understand young adults’ perception of the financial benefits of a career in the construction trades, the survey asked how much they thought people in the construction trades earn annually. Ten percent said they didn’t know. Of the other 90 percent, 9 percent think the figure is under $25,000; 34 percent think it is between $25,000 and $50,999; another 34 percent between $51,000 and $75,999; 11 percent between $76,000 and $100,000; and only 2 percent think people in the construction trades can earn upwards of $100,000 a year (Exhibit 10). Summarized in one number, young adults think the typical (median) salary of a person in the trades is around $56,150 a year.

The share of young adults who think annual salaries in the construction trades can top $75,000 is low and does not vary significantly across gender, racial/ethnic, or urban/rural groups, ranging from 11 percent to at most 14 percent.

The current chronic and until-further-notice challenge around labor capacity, shortages, labor cost pressures, costly delays in construction scheduling, etc. may distort take-aways from Rose Quint’s analysis, but here are a few:

• Clearly, this is sharp evidence that immigrant laborers–a labor workforce at risk–are not taking jobs from young Americans who want these jobs.
• Misgivings and misperceptions about what a skilled-labor career path looks like and what it yields in terms of a gratifying livelihood may be at the core of the challenge of attracting more young people to the field.
• It’s not all about money, although some of those misperceptions may include lower expectations and assumptions about the pay young people think they’d earn if they go into a skilled trade occupation.

It’s difficult not to think of terms “Drive” author Daniel Pink articulates when it comes to the challenge of attracting skilled construction labor’s next generation workforce. Pink talks about “autonomy, mastery, and purpose,” as innate, fundamental motivators that people strive for and want out of their work.

The opportunity to re-MAP–mastery, autonomy, and purpose–young Americans to the mastery of building technologies, automation, building information modeling, workflows, inter-operability, connectivity, componentization, responsiveness, resilience, renewability, etc., the autonomy of working in a gig-economy, serialized, on-demand, project by project business environment, and the purpose underlying making new communities of people, might be one builders, manufacturers, associations, trainers, and educators, might seize on.

It does seem to us, as it appears to NAHB economist Quint, that a big part of the construction labor problem is perception vs. reality. But it also may trace to what Tyler Cowen means when he talks about our complacency challenge.

If you look at lower earners–how many years people stay at home, that a lot of them are less likely to get married, or aspire to own their own home or cars, how many extra hours they spend playing video games or watching pornography or smoking marijuana. To me those are signs of a kind of complacency. There’s a new paper by Erik Hurst and he measures a lot of the less-skilled, out-of-work males and he thinks they are actually very happy or they at least think their situation is OK. The lack of fundamental social opposition to what is going on at all income levels I would call a form of complacency.

What do you think?

Controlling the movement of air between indoor and outdoor environments is a key concern when building comfortable, energy efficient homes. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, up to 40 percent of the energy used to heat and cool a building is due to uncontrolled air leakage. Therefore, it is important for builders to have a thorough understanding of air barrier materials and installation strategies.

Quite simply, an air barrier is a material or system of materials designed to control air flow between a conditioned space and an unconditioned space. A building material can be defined as an air barrier if its air permeance is equal to or less than 0.02 L/(s-m²) @ 75 Pa when tested in accordance with ASTM E2178. Alternately, an air barrier system can be tested for air leakage, which must be equal to or less than 0.02 L/(s-m²) @ 75 Pa when tested in accordance with ASTM E2178. Air barriers can also be defined through whole building testing.

In 2012, the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) began requiring continuous air barriers, and a growing list of states now include them in their building codes. Though there are many ways to prevent air movement through a building assembly, not all air barriers are equal. It is important to understand the forces working against an air barrier and the properties that will help it stand up to them. After all, an air barrier’s performance is defined by its weakest link, and it only takes one tear or unsealed connection to compromise the integrity of the entire system.

As the primary boundary between indoor and outdoor air, the air barrier assembly will be subjected to constant air movement, water, ultraviolet light, and surfactant chemicals present in certain cladding materials and cleaning agents. Any one of these elements could potentially cause materials to break down over time, jeopardizing their effectiveness. Likewise, if a material isn’t durable enough to stand up to installation conditions, it won’t be able to do its job.

Though builders have traditionally used wood pulp based building paper when constructing weather resistant barriers, newer plastic housewraps offer greater benefits in durability and ease of installation. TYPAR’s Weather Protection System, for example, is surfactant resistant, offers six months ultraviolet light exposure resistance, and has a tear strength almost five times greater than competitive wraps.

Equally important as selecting the right material, proper installation is critical in order for an air barrier system to work as intended. Sealing all laps and penetrations with the proper tape can improve the building wrap’s performance by 20 percent. Even if the primary air barrier material meets ASTM requirements, continuity of the air barrier system can be compromised by incompatible tapes and flashing or improper installation.

The simplest way to be sure the entire system will work together effectively and meet all code requirements is to specify wrap, tapes and flashing from a single manufacturer. Doing so provides added assurance that each component will work together seamlessly, and often the system will be covered by the manufacturer’s warranty.

Understanding how air barrier materials and systems are evaluated and knowing their performance characteristics will help you find the right solution for your project needs. Approaching air barriers from a holistic view and evaluating the entire air barrier system—rather than just an individual material—will result in a tighter, more durable enclosure that can stand the test of time.

More Information

Slightly less than one of every two of us who’s employed these days is “concerned, anxious or fearful about their current financial well-being,” according to this study from MetLife

that explores the role of our work-lives and everyday well-being.Far too many households–almost half–live one surprise financial emergency north of being unable to cope with a normal onslaught of monthly bills.

These data points, of course, apply to few if any of the people who’d likely consider themselves to be prospective home buyers of new homes these days. MarketWatch economics correspondent Quentin Fottrell writes:

“Over a quarter of Americans in the HomeServe USA survey said they had $8,000 or more set aside for unexpected emergency expenses, and respondents aged 65 and over are likely to have the most money set aside for unplanned expenses, with nearly half (48%) of Americans within the age group reporting having $8,000 or more in emergency funds (versus just 20% of those aged 18 to 64). Around half of those surveyed said they most expected a big medical or car expense within the next 12 months.”

But what the data can be helpful for as a reminder is that population universes are always more challenging than they seem to be.

What the data also affirms is that, more times than it may appear, a new home is more than a dream come true for the household. It’s a solution to a complex array of financial and life goals, and in important respects, the array is getting more complex every year.

The calculus involved in predicting, designing, developing, pricing, and building for 55+ households in particular gets more complicated every month that goes by.

First, there’s the financial complexity. The New York Federal Reserve notes that older Americans have been taking on more debt than they had been wont to do in eras past. MarketWatch’s Maria LaMagna writes:

Those ages 60 and older held 22.5% of total household debt in the fourth quarter of 2016, compared with 15.9% in 2008 and 12.6% in 2003. Although much of that debt is likely due to mortgages, it’s also possible they are shouldering more student loan debt than in the past, for their children and grandchildren. There were nearly 2 million borrowers between the ages of 50 and 64 who took on “Parent PLUS” loans, the loans the government offers parents, in 2015, up from about 1 million in 2005. Another 200,000 borrowers over the age of 65 also have them.

Credit card debt and auto loan debt balances for people ages 60 and older have also risen since 2008, whereas credit card debt for those 59 and younger has fallen.

Then, there’s increasing complexity in household compositions themselves. Not long ago, a 55+ household was a 55+ household was a 55+ household. In other words, a married couple, formerly with children, had reached that stage in their lives, where retirement, entitlement, and the urge to gravitate toward warmer, more naturally amenable climes converged.

Clearly, those years are bygone. It doesn’t work that way, and among the challenges for those who’re developing 55+ products, projects, and communities, are developing for less-than-traditional combos in the household composition area.

Pew Research’s Renee Stepler writes:

An increasing number of Americans ages 50 and older are in cohabiting relationships, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of the Current Population Survey. In fact, cohabiters ages 50 and older represented about a quarter (23%) of all cohabiting adults in 2016.

Since 2007, the number of cohabiting adults ages 50 and older grew by 75%. This increase is faster than that of other age groups during this time period and is driven in part by the aging of Baby Boomers. In 2016, 4 million adults ages 50 and older were cohabiting – up from 2.3 million in 2007. By comparison, 8.9 million adults ages 18 to 34 were cohabiting last year, up from 7.2 million.

The good news here is that an absolute decline in the number of conventional 55+ households from a household composition standpoint does not necessarily have to mean a drop in demand for 55+ communities. It does mean that builders, developers, designers, and marketers need to be thinking of 55+ new homes and neighborhoods as solutions to this complex set of challenges–financial, social, familial, logistical, etc., rather than simply as “that house you’ve always wanted, recently deserved, and now can have.”

Last year at IBS, attendees toured the BUILDER Responsive Home project, two adjacent houses that served as models for meeting the needs of Millennial home buyers. The homes, built by Pardee’s Las Vegas division, addressed young consumers’ interest in maximizing space and customizing and personalizing their homes.

Now, Pardee has taken the concept a step further by launching a line of homes based on the show homes’ groundbreaking ideas. Designed by Bassenian Lagoni, homes in the Strada neighborhood in the Inspirada master-planned community feature designs based on the builder’s award-winning Farmhouse Millennial Home as well as interior designs by celebrity designer Bobby Berk. Floor plans range in size from 2,493 to 3,260 square feet and prices start at $393,990.

“Strada features a fresh take on new home design with exciting architectural interpretation of our Farmhouse Millennial Home and creative connections to indoor and outdoor living spaces,” says Pardee Homes Division President Klif Andrews. He says eight of the homes have sold since the end of February, many of them to Millennial buyers.

Strada features three new floorplan designs, each offered in Farmhouse, Contemporary and Spanish elevations and with energy-saving features and options:

–Plan One measures approximately 2,493 square feet with four bedrooms, three-and-a-half baths, open great room and island kitchen, loft and two-bay garage. A spacious outdoor living area connects to the home at the front porch and a courtyard connects to the home at the dining and great room via optional glider or stacking patio doors. Strada Plan One A is priced approximately from $393,990

–Plan Two measures approximately 2,765 square feet with four bedrooms, three-and-a-half baths, and loft and two-bay garage. The home includes a downstairs master bedroom and options for a junior master suite upstairs in lieu of the second and third bedrooms. Strada Plan Two C is priced approximately from $398,990.

–Plan Three measures approximately 3,260 square feet with four bedrooms, three-and-a-half baths, and loft and two-bay garage. A spacious outdoor living area connects to the home at the entry and great room. The home also features a bedroom and full bath and separate tech space downstairs. Strada Plan Three A is priced approximately from $420,990.

Strada joins the builder’s Escala and Montero neighborhoods in Inspirada, which features four City of Henderson parks with swimming pools, splash pads, sports fields, sports courts and playground areas as well as walking trails.

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